My Predictions For OK5

I've been bombarded with emails and questions regarding the 5th District GOP race and to be honest, not sure what to think at this point.  Many have asked my opinion on the runoff and thought that I would give my analysis here, rather than answer every email individually.

Sorry.

James Lankford is right now the media darling.  He's "new" and fresh and though his talking points are not much different than his opponent, his use of social networking as well as the emotional database (not LITERAL database) from Falls Creek are a big help to his campaign.  Being a stalwart in the Baptist Convention doesn't hurt one bit either.  He has amassed quite the list when it comes to political insiders working for his campaign that range from SAGAC (formerly with Mike Thompson) to Neva Hill.  James will have to be more aggressive in radio and television and Mike Huckabee spots won't be enough to put him over the top.  There have been rumors flying around that State Senator Randy Brogdon may endorse him and if that's the case, he brings with him an army of activists who are eager to serve and put their efforts into a "fresh" voice.

Kevin Calvey, on the other hand is aggressive and has, in my opinion, been preparing for this race at this time for the last four years.  I've heard that he has even been out to Washington to look at real estate.  Calvey wants this job and believes he is the right guy for the job.  His campaign team has the reputation of doing whatever necessary to get their guys in office and this race will be no exception.  They don't like to lose and the loss to Lankford in the primary has got to have them up at arms right now.  But, how do they go after Lankford who is perceived by many to be the 2nd coming of the Apostle Paul himself?

Very carefully.

Right now, Lankford has to do two things to win:  First, he has to develop a campaign war chest and buy much more traditional television and radio and even some print.  The message has to be laser-focused on his goals for the office and how he intends to do what he says.  Second, he is going to have to show that he can reach out to the non-Baptists. 

Calvey can win too, but he's going to have to get his hands dirty a little bit.  He's going to have to provide stark contrast between he and Lankford and do so in a positive way that isn't perceived as negative.  Lankford has already shown that he has relatively thin skin because just the rumor of a "push poll" sent the press releases flying and even blogger Mike McCarville picked up the story that Lankford thought it to be deceptive.  Calvey will have to push harder at the grass roots level, knocking doors and his people are no rookies where grass roots campaigning is concerned - Trebor Worthen, working for the firm handling Calvey is also on the state GOP "Victory" committee and is involved in the well known House PAC for the state house of representatives.  They know how to go district by district and get people to support their candidates at the doorstep.

The new Calvey ad provides a bit of a contrast between Calvey and Lankford, but he's going to have to do better than that, present a stronger message.  And Rick Flanigan is applying some pressure on the DOD regulations on Calvey's non-stop use of his uniform in all of his ads.

But then again, what do I know?  I'm just a former talk show host, a blogger, media consultant and marginally functional guitar player...

Finally Friday

There is far too much going on in the political world than I care to even begin to discuss. So, instead, here's a little moment of Friday Musical Zen for you.

Sales Tax Holiday Starts Friday

It's back to school and that means time to load up on gear for the kids.  Whether it be pencils and pens or some new clothing items, this weekend looks to be a busy retail weekend for Oklahoma business owners.

And it is much needed in this tough economy.

During the sales tax break, most clothing items and shoes under $100 are tax-free and it isn't optional for retailers - they are required to participate.

These days, clothing is not cheap and I've actually seen shoes that retail well over the $100 threshold.  But there is no way in hell my kids are getting shoes that expensive.  Unless the shoes can do algebra and fold laundry, there is no casual shoe worth $100.

It's Official: Brogdon Endorses Fallin

From the press release:

OKLAHOMA CITY – State Senator Randy Brogdon today announced his support and endorsement of Mary Fallin in her race to become Oklahoma’s next governor. Brogdon was Fallin’s main competitor in the GOP gubernatorial primary, having garnered 39% of the vote to Fallin’s 55%.

“If you are a committed constitutional conservative, as I am and as my supporters are, it is extremely important to get out and vote for Mary Fallin this November,” said Brogdon.

“Unlike her Democratic opponent, Mary has fought tooth and nail against President Obama’s unconstitutional federal takeover of the health care system. She’s stood up for gun rights and she’s stood by Arizona in their fight to enforce the rule of law and stop the flood of illegal immigration at our borders. Mary is the conservative choice for governor in November, and I am asking those constitutional conservatives who supported my campaign to now support Mary in hers.”

Fallin praised Brogdon for his tenacious campaigning and his commitment to conservative values.

“Senator Brogdon is a principled leader and an energetic campaigner. He has a bright future in our party. I am pleased to have his support and I can assure both him and his supporters that I am ready to restore conservative principles to the governor’s office and pursue the policies of limited government, individual rights and fiscal discipline,” said Fallin.

Brogdon Will Endorse Fallin, But At What Cost?

More than likely, Senator Randy Brogdon will endorse Mary Fallin in her race for Governor and many will cheer and laud his effort.  Others will breathe a sigh of relief and wonder why it took so long.  But there will be others who will argue that perhaps since Randy is a man of principle who attacked Fallin throughout the primary, he should stick to his principles.

Quite the conundrum, isn't it?

OCPAC meets today as well to determine whether or not they endorse or give money to the Fallin campaign.  More than likely, OCPAC will just say no to both.  Charlie Meadows was probably one of the most ardent supporters of Senator Brogdon and finds himself in quite the pickle now, as the chair of an organization that has worked hard to stand on principle and let's give credit where credit is due - OCPAC typically sticks to its guns and supports candidates based on their record rather than their popularity.

There will be some fallout from a decision either way, but at this stage of the game, the attempts to show a united GOP will probably be effective. 

Sunday Morning Around the AC

CD5:  Mike McCarville is reporting that the so-called push-polls that have one out against James Lankford are not from the Calvey campaign.  So, if they aren't from the Calvey campaign, where are they coming from?  Or do they exist at all?  Doing some digging and I am yet to hear from anyone who has actually received this elusive push-poll.  It could be that Lankford is responding to rumor and speculation himself, or it could be a well-planned tactic to portray himself as a victim of a non-existent Boogieman.  Until someone comes forward who has actually received one of these calls, let's reserve judgment. McCarville made the statement that they could have come from a CD5 opponent in the general, and I talked to Dave White and it wasn't Dave, that's for sure.  Hard to say whether or not the Democratic opponent would do that, but it is highly unlikely and there is no way in hell Clark Duffe did that...not his style either.

GOP GOVERNOR:  A press conference has been scheduled for next week and State Senator Randy Brogdon will more than likely endorse Mary Fallin for Governor.  Better late than never, we suppose, but the truth of the matter is that though Senator Brogdon took a much-needed vacation with his lovely wife, the average Joe Republican was fully expecting support and a unified front against the Democrats this November where the state's top spot was concerned.  Bad form for Brogdon to wait and the aggregate result was a lot of banter from the Shi'ite Brogdonites who were actually talking about supporting Jari Askins...

BACK TO SCHOOL BLUES JAM UPDATE:  August 28th out at Paradise Farm, north of Waterloo on Western, it's our first "Back to School Blues Jam," featuring a band some friends and I put together as well as a couple other musical treats - all designed to enjoy some fellowship, some music and to support an incredibly worthy cause, the Hugs Project.  If you haven't made plans to come, I highly suggest you do.  You won't want to miss this.