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Monday, July 26, 2010

Primary Predictions

Been covered up busy, no time to blog but today, back in the saddle and putting together my list of predictions for tomorrow evening.  Mind you, these are not endorsements by any stretch of the imagination, but rather whom I think will win, lose or draw.  Have fun...

Governor (GOP)
Fallin wins with at least 20% of the vote.  The attacks on Mary Fallin by the Brogdon campaign have not been effective and have missed the mark on many levels.  The response of the Brogdon campaign to media inquiries have also caused support from otherwise supportive bloggers and this will cost Brogdon dearly.  The question will be whether or not the hardcore Brogdonites will support Mary in her race against the Democratic nominee.

Governor (Democratic)
Edmondson will squeak out a narrow victory over Jari Askins.  Drew's campaign ads have been effective, creative and striking at the heart of the issues most important to voters in Oklahoma...jobs.

Lt. Governor (GOP)
Lamb wins in a walk.  John Wright, though he received an endorsement from OCPAC and a few other conservative organizations, just hasn't had the ability to raise money and compete against the "Bold and Beautiful" Todd Lamb.  Lamb will face the toughest political race in his life with Kenneth Corn. 

Corporation Commission
Dana Murphy.  Period.  Tod Yeager entered the race and everyone is still trying to figure out why - but the process is what it is and if one can pony up the cash to file for statewide office, so be it.  Dana will win with at least 80% of the vote.

Labor Commissioner
Mark Costello was and is the odds-on favorite to win this race, but feedback is that his catchy "Mellow Yellow" tune radio ads are annoying and just too damned cute.  He may pull it off, but he will have to switch gears in the general election.  The ad is annoying.

Insurance Commissioner...yawn.
The only people who really care about this race are the candidates and their consultants.  I call this one a push.  Doak will probably win and on Wednesday, most voters will be asking, "Who did I vote for?"

State Treasurer (GOP)
This is going to be very interesting and I'm calling this one a toss-up.  Miller will probably do well in Oklahoma County and parts of Tulsa County, but Laughlin's support in much of rural Oklahoma will be phenomenal.  Western Oklahoma is "Laughlin Land," and the calls and emails have been flying in his support since the NRA completely screwed up and forgot to list Laughlin's "A" rating with them, but somehow listed Miller's.  I still think that this is a toss-up.  Conventional wisdom dictates Miller wins this, but Miller has a LOT of people who find him exceptionally arrogant and the fact that the Vice Chair of the GOP has been working on his campaign smacks of elitism.

State Auditor/Inspector
Gary Jones pissed off a bunch of the party faithful when he decided to run again for the post of State Auditor, but will their protest vote be enough to keep Gary from getting the nomination?  I doubt it.  I think that Gary's reputation of helping bring down the fraud and corruption by the former State Auditor will be enough for the Republican voters to give him another shot at the title.  This is do-or-die for Jones.  If he loses the primary and again loses the general in November, he's probably going to have to hang up his political hat and get back to running his family ranch in Cache.

Attorney General
Ryan Leonard had the money, the insider apparatus, the Keating blue-blood legacy, and endorsements out the rear-end.  But then, he attacked a guy whom everyone in the party likes...Scott Pruitt.  Scott Pruitt wins this one in a squeaker, but he wins nonetheless.

And now, the federal races:

Congressman Tom Cole
Congressman Dan Boren
Congressman John Sullivan
U.S. Senator Tom Coburn

Everyone knows I am supporting Dave White, the Independent candidate in this race and he has made it known that he really, really looks forward to facing Kevin Calvey in the general election.  But my predications are that this is going to be a lot closer than some think.  Thompson's television commercials have helped him immensely in polling and though at the beginning, it was Thompson's race to lose, Kevin Calvey's non-stop diatribe about his service as a National Guard reservist in Iraq has really hit the mark with a lot of voters.  McCarville believes very strongly that it will end up being a Lankford/Calvey run-off, but I say "not so fast."   Thompson has a TON of money on hand and he has been using it pretty wisely.  Lankford will have the Baptist connection on the phones hard over the next 24 hours.  Final prediction:  Calvey/Thompson in the runoff.  And in the runoff, the pretty white gloves come off.

Jett will probably endorse Calvey.  Dr. Roy will probably endorse anyone but Calvey.  Rick Flanigan (probably the most literate and conservative of the OK5 candidates) will stay out of it.  Harry Johnson will go back into retirement. 

OK5 (Democratic)
Coyle wins this in a walk.  The Paseo crowd just isn't enough to pull it off for Tom Guild.

So...there are some of my predictions.  When we hit the run-off, we share some more.