I Do, But I Don't

I Do, But I Don't

Saturday, October 30, 2010

Scary Saturday Predictions

Things have been truly bizarre this election season with unbelievable attacks, allegations and some of the worst television commercials in political history.  The anti-Obama sentiment is rampant and the Republican Party is going to sweep many elections.  Hell, it's so crazy that even a candidate like Christine O'Donnell won her primary.  It's just, plain bizarre.

So, here are some of my predictions for this Tuesday as I sit here with there kids watching Halloween 43 or something of FX.

SQ744:  Will fail about as badly as the gasoline tax increase proposal a few years ago.  The recent actions of the Yukon School Superintendent pushing teachers to hand out pro-SQ744 literature to students may have been the final nail in the coffin of all that is SQ744.  It's a deplorable proposal and the people of Oklahoma, believe it or not, are smarter than we are given credit.  The ridiculous "regional average" proposal has been ripped to shreds and we just won't take it any longer.

GOVERNOR:  Yes, I have predicted it before...Fallin will win this race, but it won't be a runaway victory like many believe.  The Askins campaign missed some opportunities to do some serious contrasts with what Mary has promised in previous campaigns contrasted with what she has delivered since serving in Washington.  In many ways, it shows that Askins is the nice person she campaigns as, rather than just another political hack.  Unfortunately, the cost will be the election.  Fallin wins.

LT. GOVERNOR:  Lamb will defeat Corn and that is primarily because Corn didn't read the opposition research closely enough and allowed his campaign to launch a ridiculous attack against Todd Lamb.  Lamb wins this one in a walk. 

STATE AUDITOR:  Gary Jones will win this race and deservedly so.  Steve Burrage, the Governor Henry appointee, has attacked Jones and it is backfiring - polls show Gary up even after the attacks.  Jones has been outspent in this race and has not received the assistance from the GOP he should have, in my opinion, though a statewide mailer apparently has gone out on his behalf.  Auditor isn't a "sexy" job and you have to truly have a passion for rooting out corruption and Gary is that man.  If this election cycle has shown us anything, it has shown us that corruption is rampant and we need Gary to expose it.  Gary is going to win, but it will be a close one.

SD6:  The Gumm/Brecheen race has made headlines and State Senator Gumm is in the political fight of his life.  I believe that he'll win, but it will be a much more narrow win than he or his supporters expect.  Brecheen does have a career ahead of him in politics but Gumm will win this one.

LABOR COMMISH:  Costello wins easily.  Richard Engle, Jim Marshall and crew have run a wickedly good campaign against the amazingly silly incumbent Lloyd Fields.  Fields should never have been elected to begin with, but the sentiment against Brenda Reneau was so great that even the political whiz Pat McGuigan couldn't save her.  Costello wins.

CD5:  Lankford defeats Billy Coyle, and Oklahoma will send the first-ever camp counselor to Washington.  Lankford's campaign was brilliant from the beginning, and he really hasn't made any promises to be held accountable for when he gets there.  He's pretty much run a campaign that is identical to Tom Cole's campaign in CD4 and in two years, when he's up for re-election, there won't be much to stick to the guy.  Congrats to Neva Hill and crew for running a historic campaign.

There are a few of my predictions on this Scary Saturday.  I'll add some of the other races later this weekend.

The sun is shining, the weather is wonderful and the kids get to dress up in their favorite costume and get treats tonight.  In a few days, some very undeserving candidates will get their treats for tricking voters into believing their hype.