My Predictions For OK5

I've been bombarded with emails and questions regarding the 5th District GOP race and to be honest, not sure what to think at this point.  Many have asked my opinion on the runoff and thought that I would give my analysis here, rather than answer every email individually.

Sorry.

James Lankford is right now the media darling.  He's "new" and fresh and though his talking points are not much different than his opponent, his use of social networking as well as the emotional database (not LITERAL database) from Falls Creek are a big help to his campaign.  Being a stalwart in the Baptist Convention doesn't hurt one bit either.  He has amassed quite the list when it comes to political insiders working for his campaign that range from SAGAC (formerly with Mike Thompson) to Neva Hill.  James will have to be more aggressive in radio and television and Mike Huckabee spots won't be enough to put him over the top.  There have been rumors flying around that State Senator Randy Brogdon may endorse him and if that's the case, he brings with him an army of activists who are eager to serve and put their efforts into a "fresh" voice.

Kevin Calvey, on the other hand is aggressive and has, in my opinion, been preparing for this race at this time for the last four years.  I've heard that he has even been out to Washington to look at real estate.  Calvey wants this job and believes he is the right guy for the job.  His campaign team has the reputation of doing whatever necessary to get their guys in office and this race will be no exception.  They don't like to lose and the loss to Lankford in the primary has got to have them up at arms right now.  But, how do they go after Lankford who is perceived by many to be the 2nd coming of the Apostle Paul himself?

Very carefully.

Right now, Lankford has to do two things to win:  First, he has to develop a campaign war chest and buy much more traditional television and radio and even some print.  The message has to be laser-focused on his goals for the office and how he intends to do what he says.  Second, he is going to have to show that he can reach out to the non-Baptists. 

Calvey can win too, but he's going to have to get his hands dirty a little bit.  He's going to have to provide stark contrast between he and Lankford and do so in a positive way that isn't perceived as negative.  Lankford has already shown that he has relatively thin skin because just the rumor of a "push poll" sent the press releases flying and even blogger Mike McCarville picked up the story that Lankford thought it to be deceptive.  Calvey will have to push harder at the grass roots level, knocking doors and his people are no rookies where grass roots campaigning is concerned - Trebor Worthen, working for the firm handling Calvey is also on the state GOP "Victory" committee and is involved in the well known House PAC for the state house of representatives.  They know how to go district by district and get people to support their candidates at the doorstep.

The new Calvey ad provides a bit of a contrast between Calvey and Lankford, but he's going to have to do better than that, present a stronger message.  And Rick Flanigan is applying some pressure on the DOD regulations on Calvey's non-stop use of his uniform in all of his ads.

But then again, what do I know?  I'm just a former talk show host, a blogger, media consultant and marginally functional guitar player...

Finally Friday

There is far too much going on in the political world than I care to even begin to discuss. So, instead, here's a little moment of Friday Musical Zen for you.

Sales Tax Holiday Starts Friday

It's back to school and that means time to load up on gear for the kids.  Whether it be pencils and pens or some new clothing items, this weekend looks to be a busy retail weekend for Oklahoma business owners.

And it is much needed in this tough economy.

During the sales tax break, most clothing items and shoes under $100 are tax-free and it isn't optional for retailers - they are required to participate.

These days, clothing is not cheap and I've actually seen shoes that retail well over the $100 threshold.  But there is no way in hell my kids are getting shoes that expensive.  Unless the shoes can do algebra and fold laundry, there is no casual shoe worth $100.

It's Official: Brogdon Endorses Fallin

From the press release:

OKLAHOMA CITY – State Senator Randy Brogdon today announced his support and endorsement of Mary Fallin in her race to become Oklahoma’s next governor. Brogdon was Fallin’s main competitor in the GOP gubernatorial primary, having garnered 39% of the vote to Fallin’s 55%.

“If you are a committed constitutional conservative, as I am and as my supporters are, it is extremely important to get out and vote for Mary Fallin this November,” said Brogdon.

“Unlike her Democratic opponent, Mary has fought tooth and nail against President Obama’s unconstitutional federal takeover of the health care system. She’s stood up for gun rights and she’s stood by Arizona in their fight to enforce the rule of law and stop the flood of illegal immigration at our borders. Mary is the conservative choice for governor in November, and I am asking those constitutional conservatives who supported my campaign to now support Mary in hers.”

Fallin praised Brogdon for his tenacious campaigning and his commitment to conservative values.

“Senator Brogdon is a principled leader and an energetic campaigner. He has a bright future in our party. I am pleased to have his support and I can assure both him and his supporters that I am ready to restore conservative principles to the governor’s office and pursue the policies of limited government, individual rights and fiscal discipline,” said Fallin.

Brogdon Will Endorse Fallin, But At What Cost?

More than likely, Senator Randy Brogdon will endorse Mary Fallin in her race for Governor and many will cheer and laud his effort.  Others will breathe a sigh of relief and wonder why it took so long.  But there will be others who will argue that perhaps since Randy is a man of principle who attacked Fallin throughout the primary, he should stick to his principles.

Quite the conundrum, isn't it?

OCPAC meets today as well to determine whether or not they endorse or give money to the Fallin campaign.  More than likely, OCPAC will just say no to both.  Charlie Meadows was probably one of the most ardent supporters of Senator Brogdon and finds himself in quite the pickle now, as the chair of an organization that has worked hard to stand on principle and let's give credit where credit is due - OCPAC typically sticks to its guns and supports candidates based on their record rather than their popularity.

There will be some fallout from a decision either way, but at this stage of the game, the attempts to show a united GOP will probably be effective. 

Sunday Morning Around the AC

CD5:  Mike McCarville is reporting that the so-called push-polls that have one out against James Lankford are not from the Calvey campaign.  So, if they aren't from the Calvey campaign, where are they coming from?  Or do they exist at all?  Doing some digging and I am yet to hear from anyone who has actually received this elusive push-poll.  It could be that Lankford is responding to rumor and speculation himself, or it could be a well-planned tactic to portray himself as a victim of a non-existent Boogieman.  Until someone comes forward who has actually received one of these calls, let's reserve judgment. McCarville made the statement that they could have come from a CD5 opponent in the general, and I talked to Dave White and it wasn't Dave, that's for sure.  Hard to say whether or not the Democratic opponent would do that, but it is highly unlikely and there is no way in hell Clark Duffe did that...not his style either.

GOP GOVERNOR:  A press conference has been scheduled for next week and State Senator Randy Brogdon will more than likely endorse Mary Fallin for Governor.  Better late than never, we suppose, but the truth of the matter is that though Senator Brogdon took a much-needed vacation with his lovely wife, the average Joe Republican was fully expecting support and a unified front against the Democrats this November where the state's top spot was concerned.  Bad form for Brogdon to wait and the aggregate result was a lot of banter from the Shi'ite Brogdonites who were actually talking about supporting Jari Askins...

BACK TO SCHOOL BLUES JAM UPDATE:  August 28th out at Paradise Farm, north of Waterloo on Western, it's our first "Back to School Blues Jam," featuring a band some friends and I put together as well as a couple other musical treats - all designed to enjoy some fellowship, some music and to support an incredibly worthy cause, the Hugs Project.  If you haven't made plans to come, I highly suggest you do.  You won't want to miss this.

Don't Count Calvey Out...Yet

Members of the new (and old) media have been all a-twitter about the newcomer, James Lankford and with good reason.  He's fresh, he's different, he's energetic and for some, he's not a political insider.  The recent announcement that he has hired SAGAC to handle some inside-baseball for his campaign also shows that he is politically savvy.  For the GOP 5th District, it's all about cash flow and Mike Thompson's campaign had plenty of that.

But let's not be too hasty.  Kevin Calvey wants this job in D.C. more than anyone we have seen in recent years and will pull out all the stops.

Within hours of the realization that Calvey was not going to win the race without a run-off, Club For Growth fired out an email asking their members to support the "experienced" Kevin Calvey.  While it is true that the Club For Growth is not even close to the same Club For Growth that helped Tom Coburn some years ago, they still have the database and they still have the ability to impact races.

And Calvey's campaign team are hardly slackers.  He has the former Chair of the GOP, a former State House Representative and Fount Holland on his team - all three hate to lose horribly.  To count them out of this race is tantamount to political suicide.

Kevin Calvey has his work cut out for him to be sure, but he has been preparing for this race for at least four years and nothing will motivate a man more than desire, passion and the attainment of his dream job. 

Bing Wines and Charles L. Peters Endorse James Davenport for State Senate District 44

Press Release:

Former Republican State Senate candidates Bing Wines and Charles L. Peters issued a joint statement today endorsing fellow primary candidate James Davenport for the Republican nomination for State Senate District 44.  Davenport, who received 49.92% of the vote in Tuesday’s primary election, fell just 3 votes short of winning without a run-off.  He is scheduled to face Ralph Shortey in the run-off election scheduled for August 24th.

The statement issued by Wines and Peters states, “Although there is a run-off election scheduled on August 24th, we believe the Republicans of Senate District 44 indicated a clear preference during this primary election.  James Davenport received 49.9% of the vote during the primary, falling a mere 3 votes short of the necessary margin to win without a run-off election.”

However, Wines and Peters go further by asking Shortey to withdraw his candidacy.  According to the statement, a run-off will only hurt Republican chances of winning this seat in the fall.  The statement says, “Time, effort, and resources that could be used to contend with a strong democratic candidate will be consumed during this run-off campaign.  Only Ralph can prevent this by withdrawing from this race and ensuring our nominee has every advantage possible in the fall.”

The former candidates end their statement saying, “As we look forward to November, we believe James is the best candidate to serve as our next State Senator.  He will be a strong leader for our conservative values and he will remain faithful and responsive to his constituents.  It is for this reason we endorse James Davenport as the Republican nominee for State Senate District 44.”

OK5 - So It Begins

The run-off is upon us and the McCarville Report is reporting that the Lankford campaign is under attack from Kevin Calvey.  Supposedly, the Calvey campaign is involved in what Lankford calls "push polling." 

Frankly, it's what campaigns do in run-off elections.  Not that it is either good or bad...it just is.

Sometimes push-polling helps to educate voters on the differences between two candidates.  For example a question such as the following may be effective in giving candidates a deeper understanding of who the opposition is versus who they portray themselves to be:

"Would you still vote for 'X' candidate if you knew that he/she has been campaigning for this office for four years?"

Or how about this one:

"Do you believe we need more lawyers in office?  Did you know that 'X' candidate calls him/herself a 'businessperson' but is really an attorney?"

Not that I necessarily agree with push polling, but they can be relatively effective.  And we're only three days into the run-off.  Stand by for heavy rolls...

That Was Wild...

Like you, I spent the majority of the evening watching the primary election returns with great anticipation and yes, there were a few big surprises.  While it wasn't a huge surprise to see Congresswoman Mary Fallin defeat State Senator Randy Brogdon, it was a little surprising to see just how many turned out to vote for the Senator.  As the smoke cleared, Fallin got the decisive victory and even extended an olive branch to the Brogdon supporters - and they deserved it.  People like Cheryl Williams and Tiffany Titsworth, to name just two, were ardent supporters of Randy and they busted their backs to support him.  Brogdon's grassroots campaign was truly phenomenal and was almost textbook.  The problem for them was really the Mary Fallin juggernaut.

And Matt Pinnell at the watch party gave a rousing GOP rally cry as well.

Another wild ride was the gubernatorial race between Drew Edmondson and Lt. Governor Jari Askins.  Jari pulled out a close victory and now, Oklahoma will have its first female governor.

The 5th Congressional District race was not a big surprise to anyone, really.  Conventional wisdom dictated that it would come down to Calvey and James Lankford, but I don't think anyone thought that Lankford would top Calvey in the primary.  The News 9 interviews with both Calvey and James Lankford were quite revealing.  Both looked very tired, but had their game faces on.  Now, the runoff commences and should be very enlightening for all of us.  I know that my friend, Dave White, is very excited about the possibilities.

Of course, Dana Murphy sailed to victory and will now have six years to implement some of her plans at the Corporation Commission.  Of all the candidates for statewide office, you'd be hard pressed to find someone who has worked as hard as her and met with as many GOP members as she.  She worked hard and earned her victory.

Gary Jones won his race as well and it really wasn't that surprising, but he faces a pretty darned tough incumbent who was appointed by Brad "Gone Fishin" Henry.  Fortunately for Gary, the anti-incumbent mood is cresting and he can ride that wave to victory in November.

So, what does it all mean?  The analysis to me shows that people voted for the individual, don't care much for negative campaigns (thus, the Pruitt victory) and are looking for some real leadership with some fresh voices (generally speaking, of course).  There are still some questions to be answered, however.

How much money does the GOP have to help Mary Fallin against Askins?

How much money does the Democratic Party have to help Askins against Fallin?

Will Club For Growth kick in some more cash to support Calvey against the Baptist's red-haired prodigy?

Where will the Brogdon supporters go and whom will they support?

In the meantime, there's always the Back to School Blues Jam and Wail...

Conventional Wisdom: Lankford/Calvey Runoff in OK5

Mike McCarville, blogger and talk radio legend, reports that KTOK's news team believes that Lankford could pull off a serious upset today.  Conventional wisdom would dictate that he is correct.

Lankford signs are everywhere.

Lankford understands social networking exceptionally well.

Lankford is a relatively new and fresh face.

Lankford has the Baptist connection.

But Thompson has had the money and has been up on media aggressively and the talk is that Thompson and Lankford are in a dead heat for the runoff with the leader, attorney Kevin Calvey. 

Calvey has been under fire from Bethany's Rick Flanigan for quite some time, but hasn't had the money to get traction on his attacks.  The other candidates are probably tickled about it, but unfortunately, it doesn't seem to have created much of a ripple against Calvey, but, we'll know tonight.

Either way, this has been probably one of the most uneventful 5th District races in recent history.

It's Primary Day

Go vote.  Here's some musical caffeine.

Primary Predictions

Been covered up busy, no time to blog but today, back in the saddle and putting together my list of predictions for tomorrow evening.  Mind you, these are not endorsements by any stretch of the imagination, but rather whom I think will win, lose or draw.  Have fun...

Governor (GOP)

Fallin wins with at least 20% of the vote.  The attacks on Mary Fallin by the Brogdon campaign have not been effective and have missed the mark on many levels.  The response of the Brogdon campaign to media inquiries have also caused support from otherwise supportive bloggers and this will cost Brogdon dearly.  The question will be whether or not the hardcore Brogdonites will support Mary in her race against the Democratic nominee.

Governor (Democratic)
Edmondson will squeak out a narrow victory over Jari Askins.  Drew's campaign ads have been effective, creative and striking at the heart of the issues most important to voters in Oklahoma...jobs.

Lt. Governor (GOP)
Lamb wins in a walk.  John Wright, though he received an endorsement from OCPAC and a few other conservative organizations, just hasn't had the ability to raise money and compete against the "Bold and Beautiful" Todd Lamb.  Lamb will face the toughest political race in his life with Kenneth Corn. 

Corporation Commission
Dana Murphy.  Period.  Tod Yeager entered the race and everyone is still trying to figure out why - but the process is what it is and if one can pony up the cash to file for statewide office, so be it.  Dana will win with at least 80% of the vote.

Labor Commissioner
Mark Costello was and is the odds-on favorite to win this race, but feedback is that his catchy "Mellow Yellow" tune radio ads are annoying and just too damned cute.  He may pull it off, but he will have to switch gears in the general election.  The ad is annoying.

Insurance Commissioner...yawn.
The only people who really care about this race are the candidates and their consultants.  I call this one a push.  Doak will probably win and on Wednesday, most voters will be asking, "Who did I vote for?"

State Treasurer (GOP)
This is going to be very interesting and I'm calling this one a toss-up.  Miller will probably do well in Oklahoma County and parts of Tulsa County, but Laughlin's support in much of rural Oklahoma will be phenomenal.  Western Oklahoma is "Laughlin Land," and the calls and emails have been flying in his support since the NRA completely screwed up and forgot to list Laughlin's "A" rating with them, but somehow listed Miller's.  I still think that this is a toss-up.  Conventional wisdom dictates Miller wins this, but Miller has a LOT of people who find him exceptionally arrogant and the fact that the Vice Chair of the GOP has been working on his campaign smacks of elitism.

State Auditor/Inspector
Gary Jones pissed off a bunch of the party faithful when he decided to run again for the post of State Auditor, but will their protest vote be enough to keep Gary from getting the nomination?  I doubt it.  I think that Gary's reputation of helping bring down the fraud and corruption by the former State Auditor will be enough for the Republican voters to give him another shot at the title.  This is do-or-die for Jones.  If he loses the primary and again loses the general in November, he's probably going to have to hang up his political hat and get back to running his family ranch in Cache.

Attorney General
Ryan Leonard had the money, the insider apparatus, the Keating blue-blood legacy, and endorsements out the rear-end.  But then, he attacked a guy whom everyone in the party likes...Scott Pruitt.  Scott Pruitt wins this one in a squeaker, but he wins nonetheless.

And now, the federal races:

Winners:
Congressman Tom Cole
Congressman Dan Boren
Congressman John Sullivan
U.S. Senator Tom Coburn

OK5 (GOP)
Everyone knows I am supporting Dave White, the Independent candidate in this race and he has made it known that he really, really looks forward to facing Kevin Calvey in the general election.  But my predications are that this is going to be a lot closer than some think.  Thompson's television commercials have helped him immensely in polling and though at the beginning, it was Thompson's race to lose, Kevin Calvey's non-stop diatribe about his service as a National Guard reservist in Iraq has really hit the mark with a lot of voters.  McCarville believes very strongly that it will end up being a Lankford/Calvey run-off, but I say "not so fast."   Thompson has a TON of money on hand and he has been using it pretty wisely.  Lankford will have the Baptist connection on the phones hard over the next 24 hours.  Final prediction:  Calvey/Thompson in the runoff.  And in the runoff, the pretty white gloves come off.

Jett will probably endorse Calvey.  Dr. Roy will probably endorse anyone but Calvey.  Rick Flanigan (probably the most literate and conservative of the OK5 candidates) will stay out of it.  Harry Johnson will go back into retirement. 

OK5 (Democratic)
Coyle wins this in a walk.  The Paseo crowd just isn't enough to pull it off for Tom Guild.

So...there are some of my predictions.  When we hit the run-off, we share some more.

Happy Birthday To Mike

Today, the talk radio legend in Central Oklahoma turns 70.  And he's still going strong.  Mike McCarville owned the afternoon airwaves of KTOK for many years and it just hasn't been the same without him asking the hard questions, entertaining us with his infectious laughter and ability to shoot straight.

Mike has been a 2nd Amendment warrior, a man whose passion for the Constitution has educated many of us rookies on the heart of the real issues and the demise of many of our freedoms. 

Mike is a legend and I wish him a very happy birthday and many more to come!

Evangelical Conservative Leader David Barton Endorses Mary Fallin for Governor

From the Fallin press release:

OKLAHOMA CITY – David Barton, Christian minister and Republican activist named by Time magazine as one of “25 most influential Evangelicals” today endorsed Mary Fallin in her campaign for governor. In a statement, Barton cited Fallin’s commitment to liberty and Constitutional principles.

"When our Founding Fathers drafted the Constitution, they did far more than lay out a series of legal rights for American citizens,” said Barton. “They created a nation that, for the first time in history, was held together not by force but by a shared commitment to freedom, individual liberty and a belief that God himself has bestowed rights to each and every person on Earth. Mary has spent 20 years in office working to preserve those rights and to expand freedom in Oklahoma and everywhere. I believe she will be a great governor, and I am happy to offer my support and endorsement in her campaign."

Fallin said she was thrilled with the endorsement and called Barton “an important voice in the conservative movement and a great lover of America and freedom.”

Dr. Roy Makes A Statement

Dr. Roy has made an aggressive statement in the latest of his ads, comparing the top three candidates to manufactured dolls.  Certain to draw the attention of his competition in this race, there is no doubt that Roy is distancing himself from the status quo - showing himself to be different.  Enjoy.

Mary Fallin Launches New Ad

Staying above the mudslinging, Congresswoman Mary Fallin launches her new television ad - though previous ads have been scarcely seen in Central Oklahoma.  Take a look:

Back To School Blues Jam Information

Coming up, August 28th, we are hosting the Back to School Blues Jam and Wail out at Pat and Frank Paradise's Paradise Farm and it looks like this will continue to be an annual event. This year, we're doing it for a very special, very important cause...The Hugs Project here in Oklahoma.

It all began in 2009 when my good friend Steven Jones and I found ourselves in a pickle.  Both of us had experienced horrible years and both being guitar players and lovers of blues music, with some supervision, we decided to host the 1st Annual Blues Jam and Wail.  It was a great success by any measure - we had an ad hoc group of musicians we put together as well as an incredible group from Stillwater, Seven of Swords.

We put it on again this year during the Independence Day weekend and even though we were rain-soaked, it ended up being a blast and we raised a little over $200 for the Mid American Chapter of the Paralyzed Veterans of America.  So, we decided to do another blues jam.

August is a hot month, a month when the kids get back to school and the adults breathe a sigh of relief thereby.  Steve, myself, John Greening, Bill Frank, Nate Webb and Jerry Brown have a little group we've put together and tonight begins our practice sessions for the event and our set list includes everything from Joe Walsh to Great White.  Not saying that we're ready for a tour or anything but it will be a blast.

The best thing about the Back to School Blues Jam and Wail is that it is a non-partisan, non-political way to get together, enjoy the tunes of a bunch of different musicians and celebrate the work of an amazing group of men and women at the Hugs Project.  About the Hugs Project:

The Hugs Project, started May, 2004 in Oklahoma by Ray and Karen Stark, is a non profit 501 C 3 organization. We were the first ones to send cool ties (affectionately nicknamed "hugs" since they go around the neck) to the Middle East. We recognized the need to help keep American Troops and our allies cool during the summer and warm during the winter. Our dedicated group also sends care packages and other handmade items to our Service Men and Women. This is our way of saying, "Thank you, we respect you and appreciate everything you do for our Country. Thanks for protecting our freedoms".

As you can see, they are more than worthy of our support and we'll be passing the plate for them at this Blues Jam.  Mark your calendars for August 28th at Paradise Farm in Southwest Logan County, (MAP HERE), bring your beverage of choice, a couple lawn chairs and a willingness to enjoy each others' company.

If you have a band, would like to volunteer or would like more information, contact me here.

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Oklahoman On Brogdon Attack Ad: FAIL

The Oklahoman has begun a series of articles wherein the claims of campaigns are being analyzed.  And it is about darned time.  The Brogdon campaign couldn't be more unhappy about it because the attack ad on Mary Fallin has been an epic failure from the beginning.  The efficacy of the campaign ad is summed up in these words from the Oklahoman:

A review of the political action committee donations Fallin has received since her first congressional race in 2006 showed $1,500 in contributions from J.P. Morgan Chase's committee. None of the other big Wall Street banks' political committees were listed as donors to Fallin on the Federal Election Commission website.

Whether Brogdon is referring to contributions from some individual bankers isn't clear.

Louis Waller, a spokesman for Brogdon's campaign, declined to name any of the campaign donors to Fallin who were also recipients of bailout funds.

"I'm not going to do your digging for you," Waller said.

The ad also says Fallin "requested millions in pork from the Obama stimulus."

Waller also declined to be specific about this charge.

Game.  Set.  Match.

Read the whole analysis here.

McCarville: Jeb Bush Endorses Fallin

The McCarville Report is reporting that former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has endorsed Congresswoman Mary Fallin in her bid for Governor.

Read the McCarville Report here.